Reggina 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggina host Monza at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 0.69 xG and Monza 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Monza attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.711 / away 1.007. Data: 0 Reggina games / 0 Monza games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Reggina 25% | Draw 34% | Monza 41%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Monza 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Reggina's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 25% | Draw 34% | Monza 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Reggina 0.69 / Monza 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Monza attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.711 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Monza xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Monza kick off?
Reggina vs Monza kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Monza?
Reggina 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Reggina vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Monza part of?
Reggina vs Monza is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 25% chance of winning, Monza a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Reggina and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Monza in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reggina's attack at 0.85x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
25%
4.00
34%
2.96
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Reggina xG
Total xG
1.68
0.98
Monza xG
4.00
25%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 18.4 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Reggina and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Reggina and 0.98 for Monza, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Pre-Season
Monza
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Monza 1-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Reggina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 1, as Reggina and Monza drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 0.69 xG and Monza 0.98 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 25% | Draw 34% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.