Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 35%, yet in-form Sudtirol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reggiana vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sudtirol are 0.90 PPG clear of Reggiana in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reggiana, 3 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 58% versus Sudtirol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 48% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.01 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.871 / defence 1.068 | Sudtirol attack 0.808 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.110. Data: 65 Reggiana games / 65 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Sudtirol 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sudtirol (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 60% | Sudtirol 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Reggiana 1.01 / Sudtirol 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.871 / def 1.068 | Sudtirol attack 0.808 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sudtirol xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Sudtirol kick off?
Reggiana vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Reggiana 0 - 4 Sudtirol.
Where is Reggiana vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Sudtirol part of?
Reggiana vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 35% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Reggiana and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 3W.
What form are Reggiana and Sudtirol in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.81x) against Reggiana's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.98
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.97
0.96
Sudtirol xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.96 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 19D 28L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 19W 23D 23L from 65 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Reggiana against 1.23 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (10W 11D 11L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 8W 12D 12L from 32 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 18W 19D 28L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 19W 23D 23L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Sudtirol away?
Reggiana's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.28 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sudtirol have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-4 on 3 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reggiana
1
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Sudtirol have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 59%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggiana) and 47% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 28% of games; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 47% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggiana 0-4 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.01 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.12 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.