Reggiana 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Sudtirol.

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Analysis

Sudtirol make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time.

Form

Reggiana (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Reggiana at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sudtirol have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sudtirol away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Reggiana against 1.40 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Reggiana's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Reggiana's games and 80% of Sudtirol's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Reggiana edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Reggiana 3–2 Sudtirol — a Reggiana win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 58% versus Sudtirol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 42% | Sudtirol 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sudtirol surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Reggiana recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.03 xG and Sudtirol 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.742 / defence 1.150 | Sudtirol attack 1.071 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.208. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Reggiana's last 26 games and Sudtirol's last 64.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.02 | Draw 3.46 | Sudtirol 2.16. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 70% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 80% (last 10 away games).

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