Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Reggiana take on Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Sampdoria in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggiana have posted 2W 4D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sampdoria are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Reggiana have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sampdoria in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Reggiana 1W, Sampdoria 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Sampdoria 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 48% | Sampdoria 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.03 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.776 / defence 1.162 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Reggiana games / 75 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 31%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Sampdoria 3.23. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Reggiana 60% | Sampdoria 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Reggiana 1.03 / Sampdoria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.776 / def 1.162 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sampdoria xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Sampdoria kick off?
Reggiana vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 May 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Reggiana 1 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Reggiana vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Sampdoria part of?
Reggiana vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 34% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Reggiana and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sampdoria?
Record (5 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 3W.
What form are Reggiana and Sampdoria in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.79x) against Reggiana's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
34%
2.90
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.00
0.97
Sampdoria xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.97 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 19W 21D 35L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 20W 27D 28L from 75 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Reggiana against 1.16 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (11W 12D 13L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 4W 15D 17L from 36 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.97 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 19W 21D 35L in their last 75 games (1.04 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 20W 27D 28L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Sampdoria away?
Reggiana's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.25 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
1
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Sampdoria have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 56%, Sampdoria 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reggiana) and 50% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 31% of games; Sampdoria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Reggiana's games and 67% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggiana edge out Sampdoria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Sampdoria 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.03 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 31%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Sampdoria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.04 PPG, Sampdoria 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.