Reggiana 1-3 Pescara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reggiana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Reggiana welcome Pescara to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggiana have posted 1W 4D 5L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pescara have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pescara's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.40 (Pescara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggiana, 1 for Pescara and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Pescara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pescara in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Pescara 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 50% | Pescara 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.36 xG and Pescara 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.718 / defence 1.166 | Pescara attack 0.945 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Reggiana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Reggiana games / 32 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Pescara 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 50% | Pescara 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Reggiana 1.36 / Pescara 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.718 / def 1.166 | Pescara attack 0.945 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pescara xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Pescara kick off?
Reggiana vs Pescara kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Pescara?
Reggiana 1 - 3 Pescara.
Where is Reggiana vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Pescara part of?
Reggiana vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 39% chance of winning, Pescara a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggiana and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pescara?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 0 | Pescara 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Pescara in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Pescara (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.72x the league average against Pescara's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.35
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Pescara xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.21 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 7W 9D 16L from 32 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Pescara, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 15L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 0.94 PPG, Pescara on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pescara's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.34 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Pescara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Pescara in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 games (0.94 PPG), while Pescara have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Pescara away?
Reggiana's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.20 PPG; Pescara away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Pescara runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Pescara have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Reggiana 1-3 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Pescara?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 60%, Pescara 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reggiana) and 67% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 27% of games; Pescara in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Reggiana's games and 67% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Reggiana's matches and 67% of Pescara's.
Do Reggiana and Pescara tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pescara in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.36 xG and Pescara 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Pescara attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Pescara 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pescara's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 0.94 PPG, Pescara 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.