Reggiana 1-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Mantova at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Mantova's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Reggiana's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Reggiana have won 2, Mantova 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Reggiana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Mantova in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 59% versus Mantova 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 51% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.22 xG and Mantova 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.873 / defence 1.195 | Mantova attack 0.936 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.066. Data: 61 Reggiana games / 61 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 36% | Draw 29% | Mantova 35%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Mantova 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Reggiana dominate the H2H record, yet Mantova are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mantova (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 70% | Mantova 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 36% | Draw 29% | Mantova 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Reggiana 1.22 / Mantova 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.873 / def 1.195 | Mantova attack 0.936 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mantova xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Mantova kick off?
Reggiana vs Mantova kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Mantova?
Reggiana 1 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Reggiana vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Mantova part of?
Reggiana vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 36% chance of winning, Mantova a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggiana and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Mantova?
Record (3 meetings): Reggiana 2W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Mantova in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Mantova (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
36%
2.78
29%
3.40
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.41
1.19
Mantova xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.19 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 17D 28L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.10 PPG from 61 outings (16W 19D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.07 PPG, Mantova on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reggiana's home form reads 9W 10D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (4W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.16 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Mantova in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 16W 17D 28L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Mantova have gone 16W 19D 26L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Mantova away?
Reggiana's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.23 PPG; Mantova away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Mantova runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reggiana's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reggiana
1
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 3, Mantova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Mantova?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 60%, Mantova 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Reggiana) and 57% (Mantova). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 30% of games; Mantova in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Reggiana's games and 60% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Reggiana's matches and 57% of Mantova's.
Do Reggiana and Mantova tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mantova in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggiana edge out Mantova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Mantova 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.22 xG and Mantova 1.19 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Mantova attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 36% | Draw 29% | Mantova 35%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 51%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.07 PPG, Mantova 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.