Reggiana 2-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Mantova at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Reggiana haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.34 xG and Mantova 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.867 / defence 1.029 | Mantova attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.213. Data: 38 Reggiana games / 0 Mantova games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 28%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Reggiana 1.34 / Mantova 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.867 / def 1.029 | Mantova attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mantova xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Mantova kick off?
Reggiana vs Mantova kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Mantova?
Reggiana 2 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Reggiana vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Mantova part of?
Reggiana vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 42% chance of winning, Mantova a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggiana and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Mantova in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.36
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.41
1.06
Mantova xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.06 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Pre-Season
Mantova
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Mantova runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reggiana's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reggiana
1
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 3, Mantova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Mantova?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Reggiana and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 1, as Reggiana and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.34 xG and Mantova 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Mantova attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 28%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.