Pordenone 1-4 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Pordenone welcome Monza to Stadio Guido Teghil. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone at Stadio Guido Teghil this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monza have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Monza are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pordenone register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Monza in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pordenone, 1 for Monza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pordenone in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Monza 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 42% | Monza 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.89 xG and Monza 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.742 / defence 1.275 | Monza attack 0.829 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.169. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Pordenone games / 24 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 35% | Monza 41%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Monza 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pordenone 60% | Monza 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 35% | Monza 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Pordenone 0.89 / Monza 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.742 / def 1.275 | Monza attack 0.829 / def 1.246 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Monza xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Monza kick off?
Pordenone vs Monza kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Monza?
Pordenone 1 - 4 Monza.
Where is Pordenone vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Monza part of?
Pordenone vs Monza is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 24% chance of winning, Monza a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pordenone and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Pordenone and Monza in?
Pordenone (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.74) and Monza's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
24%
4.23
35%
2.84
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.13
1.24
Monza xG
4.23
24%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.57
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.24 for Monza, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pordenone's recent record stands at 2W 6D 16L from 24 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 5L across 24 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pordenone have managed 1W 4D 7L from 12 games — 0.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 2W 6D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pordenone are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.50 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Monza in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 16L in their last 24 games (0.50 PPG), while Monza have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.58 PPG; Monza away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Monza in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pordenone and Monza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Pordenone 1-4 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 50%, Monza 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pordenone and 33% for Monza.
On the defensive side: Monza in 33%; Pordenone have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pordenone's recent matches and 58% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pordenone's recent games and 33% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Monza tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Monza in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Pordenone 1-4 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.89 xG and Monza 1.24 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 24% | Draw 35% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 42%, Monza 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Pordenone (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.