Pordenone 3-3 Crotone – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pordenone at 33%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Crotone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Pordenone host Crotone at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Pordenone's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Guido Teghil this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Crotone have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Crotone are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pordenone register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crotone in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pordenone have won 0, Crotone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Crotone winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Pordenone in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Crotone in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Crotone 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 39% | Crotone 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.16 xG and Crotone 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.776 / defence 1.461 | Crotone attack 0.736 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Pordenone games / 36 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pordenone 33% | Draw 33% | Crotone 33%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Crotone 3.03. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pordenone 60% | Crotone 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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