Pordenone 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pordenone and Brescia meet at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Pordenone at Stadio Guido Teghil this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Brescia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brescia away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Brescia arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pordenone lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Brescia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pordenone — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Brescia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pordenone 40% | Brescia 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.64 xG and Brescia 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.687 / defence 1.465 | Brescia attack 0.957 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.039. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Pordenone games / 30 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 14% | Draw 32% | Brescia 54%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 7.14 | Draw 3.12 | Brescia 1.85. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 50% | Brescia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 14% | Draw 32% | Brescia 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Pordenone 0.64 / Brescia 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.687 / def 1.465 | Brescia attack 0.957 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Brescia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Brescia xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Brescia kick off?
Pordenone vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Brescia?
Pordenone 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Pordenone vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Brescia part of?
Pordenone vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 14% chance of winning, Brescia a 54% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pordenone and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Pordenone and Brescia in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.69) and Brescia's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.96x) against Pordenone's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-2 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
14%
7.32
32%
3.10
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.10
1.46
Brescia xG
7.32
14%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
3%
31.40
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 17.8 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.46 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pordenone come into this having played 30 games, going 2W 7D 21L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (14W 11D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pordenone's home form reads 1W 5D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 2.07 points per game from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pordenone are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.53 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Brescia in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 7D 21L in their last 30 games (0.43 PPG), while Brescia have gone 14W 11D 5L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.53 PPG; Brescia away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Brescia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Pordenone 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 53%, Brescia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pordenone and 33% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Brescia in 47%; Pordenone have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pordenone's recent matches and 47% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pordenone's recent games and 33% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Brescia tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brescia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.64 xG and Brescia 1.46 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.69 / defence 1.47 against Brescia attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 14% | Draw 32% | Brescia 54%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 40%, Brescia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.