Pisa 3-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Pisa at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Sampdoria encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Sampdoria travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa in Serie B (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Pisa's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sampdoria — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Sampdoria have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Pisa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Pisa's games and 60% of Sampdoria's (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Pisa, 0 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Pisa 2–0 Sampdoria — a Pisa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Pisa trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Sampdoria trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 70% and Sampdoria 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Sampdoria 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pisa surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sampdoria surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.81 xG and Sampdoria 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.282 / defence 0.978 | Sampdoria attack 1.432 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.058. Pisa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.282 — their 1.81 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Sampdoria have an above-average attack rating of 1.432, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Pisa's last 50 games and Sampdoria's last 50.

Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 29%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.30 | Draw 3.69 | Sampdoria 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights