Pisa 2-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Palermo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Palermo — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.00 PPG, Palermo 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pisa, 1 for Palermo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 4–3 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 72% and Palermo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Palermo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.56 xG and Palermo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.190 / defence 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.909 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.240. Data: 39 Pisa games / 39 Palermo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 80% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Pisa 1.56 / Palermo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.190 / def 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.909 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Palermo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Palermo kick off?
Pisa vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Pisa 2 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Pisa vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Palermo part of?
Pisa vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 43% chance of winning, Palermo a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pisa and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 2 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Pisa and Palermo in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.74
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.85
1.30
Palermo xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Pisa and 1.30 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 14D 14L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 14W 10D 15L from 39 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.21 PPG, Palermo on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (6W 9D 4L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.51 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Palermo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 11W 14D 14L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Palermo have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Palermo away?
Pisa's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.42 PPG; Palermo away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Palermo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Pisa's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Palermo?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 79%, Palermo at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Pisa) and 42% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Pisa's games and 58% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Pisa's recent games and 42% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Palermo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Palermo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Palermo 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.56 xG and Palermo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.19 / defence 1.15 against Palermo attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Palermo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.21 PPG, Palermo 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.