Perugia 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 54%, yet in-form Cosenza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Perugia vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Perugia welcome Cosenza to Stadio Renato Curi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Perugia are significantly better at Stadio Renato Curi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cosenza are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Perugia, 0 for Cosenza and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Perugia in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 46% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 35% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.54 xG and Cosenza 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.998 / defence 1.098 | Cosenza attack 0.737 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.977. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Perugia games / 71 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 54% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 18%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Cosenza 5.56. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cosenza (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 54% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 1.54 / Cosenza 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.998 / def 1.098 | Cosenza attack 0.737 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Perugia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cosenza xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Cosenza kick off?
Perugia vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Cosenza?
Perugia 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Perugia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Cosenza part of?
Perugia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 54% chance of winning, Cosenza a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 2 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Perugia and Cosenza in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Perugia's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.69
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.33
0.79
Cosenza xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Perugia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Perugia and 0.79 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 23W 23D 26L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 18W 21D 33L from 72 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.28 PPG, Cosenza on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.31 PPG from 35 outings (11W 13D 11L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 12D 21L from 35 away games — 0.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 23W 23D 26L in their last 72 games (1.28 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 21D 33L in their last 72 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Cosenza away?
Perugia's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.31 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.51 PPG.
Have Perugia or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cosenza in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Perugia's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
3
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Cosenza?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 46%, Cosenza 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Perugia) and 40% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 29% of games; Cosenza in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Perugia's recent matches and 51% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Perugia's recent games and 40% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Perugia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Cosenza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.54 xG and Cosenza 0.79 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Cosenza attack 0.74 / defence 1.35, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 54% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 18%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 35%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.28 PPG, Cosenza 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.