Perugia 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Perugia and Cremonese meet at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Perugia (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's home record at Stadio Renato Curi: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Cremonese arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Perugia, 0 for Cremonese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Perugia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Perugia — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Cremonese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 30% | Cremonese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.97 xG and Cremonese 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.960 / defence 0.935 | Cremonese attack 1.054 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 1.180. Data: 23 Perugia games / 23 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 27% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 37%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Cremonese 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 27% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Perugia 0.97 / Cremonese 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.960 / def 0.935 | Cremonese attack 1.054 / def 1.054 | league avg home 0.959 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Cremonese kick off?
Perugia vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Cremonese?
Perugia 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Perugia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Cremonese part of?
Perugia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 27% chance of winning, Cremonese a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Perugia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Perugia and Cremonese in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.96) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.05x) against Perugia's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
27%
3.66
36%
2.82
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.13
1.16
Cremonese xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Perugia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Perugia and 1.16 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 9W 10D 4L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 13W 5D 5L from 23 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Perugia against 1.91 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.65 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 9W 10D 4L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.45 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Perugia or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cremonese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Perugia 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Cremonese?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 46%, Cremonese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Perugia and 46% for Cremonese.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cremonese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Perugia's recent matches and 46% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Perugia's recent games and 46% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Perugia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.97 xG and Cremonese 1.16 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Cremonese attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 27% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 37%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 30%, Cremonese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.61 PPG, Cremonese 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.