Perugia 1-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Perugia and Cittadella meet at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Perugia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Perugia have posted 2W 2D 2L at Stadio Renato Curi — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Perugia, 1.40 for Cittadella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 38% versus Cittadella 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 31% | Cittadella 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.98 xG and Cittadella 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.876 / defence 1.093 | Cittadella attack 0.695 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.167. Data: 13 Perugia games / 13 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 36% | Draw 32% | Cittadella 31%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Cittadella 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 50% | Cittadella 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 36% | Draw 32% | Cittadella 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Perugia 0.98 / Cittadella 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.876 / def 1.093 | Cittadella attack 0.695 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Perugia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cittadella xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Cittadella kick off?
Perugia vs Cittadella kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Cittadella?
Perugia 1 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Perugia vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Cittadella part of?
Perugia vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 36% chance of winning, Cittadella a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Perugia and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Cittadella in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Cittadella (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.69x) against Perugia's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
36%
2.75
32%
3.09
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.87
0.89
Cittadella xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.7 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Perugia and 0.89 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Perugia come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 5D 3L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Perugia against 1.54 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Perugia's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games; Cittadella in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Cittadella away?
Perugia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.33 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Perugia or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Cittadella in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
2
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cittadella?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Cittadella have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Cittadella 0-2 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 50%, Cittadella 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Perugia and 17% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cittadella in 33%; Cittadella in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Perugia's recent matches and 33% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Perugia's recent games and 17% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Cittadella tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Cittadella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Cittadella finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.98 xG and Cittadella 0.89 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Cittadella attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 36% | Draw 32% | Cittadella 31%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 31%, Cittadella 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Cittadella's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.54 PPG, Cittadella 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.