Perugia 0-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Perugia take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Renato Curi to face Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:20 UTC.
Form
Perugia (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benevento have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Perugia, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Benevento 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 32% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.85 xG and Benevento 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.847 / defence 0.853 | Benevento attack 0.823 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.157. Data: 25 Perugia games / 25 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 31% | Draw 41% | Benevento 28%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.23 | Draw 2.44 | Benevento 3.57. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 30% | Benevento 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 31% | Draw 41% | Benevento 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 35% | xG Perugia 0.85 / Benevento 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.847 / def 0.853 | Benevento attack 0.823 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Benevento xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Benevento kick off?
Perugia vs Benevento kicked off at 15:20 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Benevento?
Perugia 0 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Perugia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Benevento part of?
Perugia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 31% chance of winning, Benevento a 28% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Perugia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Perugia and Benevento in?
Perugia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Perugia's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.82x) against Perugia's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
41%
2.44
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.66
0.81
Benevento xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 15.4 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Perugia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Perugia and 0.81 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 10W 11D 4L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 12W 7D 6L from 25 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Perugia against 1.72 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 5W 4D 3L from 12 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.60 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Benevento in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 10W 11D 4L in their last 25 games (1.64 PPG), while Benevento have gone 12W 7D 6L in their last 25 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.42 PPG; Benevento away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Perugia or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Benevento in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Perugia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Perugia
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Perugia 3-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Benevento?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 42%, Benevento 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Perugia and 8% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Perugia's recent matches and 42% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Perugia's recent games and 8% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Benevento tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Perugia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Perugia 0-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.85 xG and Benevento 0.81 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Perugia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.85 / defence 0.85 against Benevento attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 31% | Draw 41% | Benevento 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 32%, Benevento 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.64 PPG, Benevento 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.