Perugia 1-3 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Renato Curi to face Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bari have collected 1.00 PPG across 2 Serie B outings this season: 0W 2D 0L. Last five: D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.32 xG and Bari 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.823 / defence 0.810 | Bari attack 0.985 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Perugia games / 2 Bari games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Perugia 47% | Draw 29% | Bari 24%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Bari 4.17. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 47% | Draw 29% | Bari 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Perugia 1.32 / Bari 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.823 / def 0.810 | Bari attack 0.985 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Perugia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bari xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Bari kick off?
Perugia vs Bari kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Bari?
Perugia 1 - 3 Bari.
Where is Perugia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Bari part of?
Perugia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 47% chance of winning, Bari a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Perugia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Bari in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Bari (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Perugia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.98x) against Perugia's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.41
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.18
0.86
Bari xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Perugia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Perugia and 0.86 for Bari, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Perugia's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 0L across 2 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Perugia heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Perugia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Bari in 100%.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Bari in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Bari have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Perugia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Bari in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
0
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Bari 0-2 Perugia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Perugia's recent matches and 100% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Perugia's recent games and 50% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Bari tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bari in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Perugia 1-3 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.32 xG and Bari 0.86 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bari outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Bari attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 47% | Draw 29% | Bari 24%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 0%, Bari 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Perugia scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.