Parma 2-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Ternana at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Parma — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.30 PPG, Ternana 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Parma register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ternana in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 2 for Ternana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Ternana 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 43% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 2.01 xG and Ternana 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.053 / defence 0.990 | Ternana attack 1.060 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.057. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Parma games / 42 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 58% | Draw 21% | Ternana 20%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Ternana 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Parma (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 60% | Ternana 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 58% | Draw 21% | Ternana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Parma 2.01 / Ternana 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.053 / def 0.990 | Ternana attack 1.060 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Parma (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ternana xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Ternana kick off?
Parma vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Ternana?
Parma 2 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Parma vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Ternana part of?
Parma vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 58% chance of winning, Ternana a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Parma and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ternana?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 2W.
What form are Parma and Ternana in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Ternana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.05) and Ternana's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.69
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Parma xG
Total xG
3.12
1.11
Ternana xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
36.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Parma and 1.11 for Ternana, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Ternana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma's recent record stands at 12W 19D 11L from 42 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 16L across 42 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.31 PPG, Ternana on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Parma have managed 6W 10D 5L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 6W 7D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.48 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Ternana in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 19D 11L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Ternana have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Ternana away?
Parma's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.33 PPG; Ternana away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Parma or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ternana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Parma's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Ternana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Ternana 1-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Parma at 57%, Ternana at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 62% (Ternana).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Parma's games and 86% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 62% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Ternana tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Ternana in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 2.01 xG and Ternana 1.11 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Ternana attack 1.06 / defence 1.41, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 58% | Draw 21% | Ternana 20%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.31 PPG, Ternana 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.