Parma 3-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Ternana at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Parma — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.80 PPG, Ternana 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ternana, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Parma.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ternana have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 47% versus Ternana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | Ternana 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.94 xG and Ternana 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.253 / defence 0.952 | Ternana attack 1.291 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.123. Parma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ternana have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Parma games / 55 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Ternana 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Ternana 3.70. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 50% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Ternana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Parma 1.94 / Ternana 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.253 / def 0.952 | Ternana attack 1.291 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Parma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ternana xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Ternana kick off?
Parma vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Ternana?
Parma 3 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Parma vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Ternana part of?
Parma vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 50% chance of winning, Ternana a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Parma and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ternana?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Ternana 3W.
What form are Parma and Ternana in?
Parma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.25) and Ternana's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.28
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Parma xG
Total xG
3.32
1.38
Ternana xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
4%
26.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Parma and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Parma and 1.38 for Ternana, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma's recent record stands at 27W 14D 14L from 55 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 25L across 55 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Parma have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Ternana in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 27W 14D 14L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Ternana have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Ternana away?
Parma's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.89 PPG; Ternana away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Parma or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ternana in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Parma's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Ternana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Ternana 1-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 44%, Ternana 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Parma) and 67% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 26% of games; Ternana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Parma's recent matches and 63% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Parma's recent games and 67% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Ternana tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ternana in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Ternana 3-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.94 xG and Ternana 1.38 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.25 / defence 0.95 against Ternana attack 1.29 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Ternana 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Ternana 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.