Parma 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Parma at 40%, yet in-form Benevento provide a compelling counter-argument — this Parma vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 2 as Parma welcome Benevento to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie B fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benevento are 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.36 xG and Benevento 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.252. Data: 1 Parma games / 1 Benevento games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 40% | Draw 26% | Benevento 34%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benevento (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 5.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 40% | Draw 26% | Benevento 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Parma 1.36 / Benevento 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Parma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Benevento kick off?
Parma vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Benevento?
Parma 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Parma vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Benevento part of?
Parma vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Parma and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Benevento in?
Parma (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Benevento (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.96) and Benevento's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.79
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Parma xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Benevento xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Parma and 1.22 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 4.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Benevento in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Benevento in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Benevento 2-2 Parma.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Parma's games and 100% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Parma's matches and 100% of Benevento's.
Do Parma and Benevento tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Benevento 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.36 xG and Benevento 1.22 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Benevento attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Parma 40% | Draw 26% | Benevento 34%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 100%, Benevento 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.