Palermo 2-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Palermo take on Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Palermo, 1.30 for Reggiana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Palermo 1W, Reggiana 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Reggiana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Palermo — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Reggiana — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 55% versus Reggiana 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 53% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.82 xG and Reggiana 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.793 / defence 0.955 | Reggiana attack 0.779 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.204. Palermo's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Palermo games / 47 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 29% | Draw 38% | Reggiana 33%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Reggiana 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Palermo's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Reggiana 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 29% | Draw 38% | Reggiana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Palermo 0.82 / Reggiana 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.793 / def 0.955 | Reggiana attack 0.779 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Reggiana xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Reggiana kick off?
Palermo vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Reggiana?
Palermo 2 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Palermo vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Reggiana part of?
Palermo vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 29% chance of winning, Reggiana a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Palermo and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Palermo and Reggiana in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Palermo vs Reggiana?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.79x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.78x) against Palermo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.50
38%
2.61
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.71
0.90
Reggiana xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 16.2 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Palermo and 0.90 for Reggiana, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palermo come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 13D 17L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.26 PPG from 47 outings (13W 20D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Palermo against 1.26 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Palermo's home form reads 8W 6D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 13W 20D 14L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.30 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Palermo or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Reggiana in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Reggiana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Reggiana?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 52%, Reggiana 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Palermo) and 44% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 35%; Palermo have failed to score in 30% of games; Reggiana in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Palermo's recent matches and 39% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Palermo's recent games and 44% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Reggiana tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Reggiana 2-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.82 xG and Reggiana 0.90 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Reggiana attack 0.78 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 29% | Draw 38% | Reggiana 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 53%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Reggiana 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.