Palermo 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Cosenza at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Palermo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Palermo, 1 for Cosenza and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 55% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.40 xG and Cosenza 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.191 / defence 0.898 | Cosenza attack 0.825 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.130. Data: 42 Palermo games / 43 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 5.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Cosenza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Palermo 1.40 / Cosenza 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.191 / def 0.898 | Cosenza attack 0.825 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Palermo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cosenza xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Cosenza kick off?
Palermo vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cosenza?
Palermo 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Palermo vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cosenza part of?
Palermo vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 48% chance of winning, Cosenza a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Palermo and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Palermo and Cosenza in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palermo's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.17
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.23
0.84
Cosenza xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
5%
19.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Palermo and 0.84 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 14W 17D 11L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 9W 16D 17L from 42 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.40 PPG, Cosenza on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (9W 8D 3L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 8D 11L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.86 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 14W 17D 11L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 9W 16D 17L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Cosenza away?
Palermo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.75 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Palermo or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cosenza in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Palermo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 45%, Cosenza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Palermo) and 35% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 30% of games; Cosenza in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Palermo's recent games and 35% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Cosenza tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Palermo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Palermo 0-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.40 xG and Cosenza 0.84 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palermo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.19 / defence 0.90 against Cosenza attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 48% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 20%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Cosenza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.40 PPG, Cosenza 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.