Palermo 0-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palermo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Cesena at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cesena — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.40 (Cesena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cesena in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 40% and Cesena 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 20% | Cesena 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.67 xG and Cesena 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.023 / defence 1.033 | Cesena attack 0.815 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.139. Cesena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Palermo games / 5 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 27% | Cesena 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Cesena 5.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 50% | Cesena 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 27% | Cesena 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Palermo 1.67 / Cesena 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.023 / def 1.033 | Cesena attack 0.815 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Palermo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cesena xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Cesena kick off?
Palermo vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cesena?
Palermo 0 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Palermo vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cesena part of?
Palermo vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 53% chance of winning, Cesena a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palermo and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Cesena in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Cesena (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.67
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.63
0.96
Cesena xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Palermo and 0.96 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.40 PPG, Cesena on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Cesena in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Cesena have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palermo's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Cesena have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Palermo 2-0 Cesena.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 40%, Cesena 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Palermo) and 80% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Palermo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Palermo's games and 80% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palermo vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Palermo's recent games and 80% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Cesena tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cesena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 6, as Palermo and Cesena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.67 xG and Cesena 0.96 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Cesena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Cesena attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 53% | Draw 27% | Cesena 20%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 20%, Cesena 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cesena's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.40 PPG, Cesena 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.