Cosenza 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Cosenza welcome Ternana to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.10 (Ternana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cosenza register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ternana in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cosenza, 1 for Ternana and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ternana trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Ternana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 40% | Ternana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.46 xG and Ternana 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.989 / defence 1.082 | Ternana attack 0.950 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.032. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Cosenza games / 60 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 27% | Ternana 27%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 3.70. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 70% | Ternana 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 27% | Ternana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Cosenza 1.46 / Ternana 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.989 / def 1.082 | Ternana attack 0.950 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ternana xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Ternana kick off?
Cosenza vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Ternana?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Cosenza vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Ternana part of?
Cosenza vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Ternana a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cosenza and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 1 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Ternana in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Ternana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.69
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.52
1.06
Ternana xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.06 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 14W 17D 29L from 60 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 22L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ternana by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 12W 6D 12L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ternana's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.37 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 14W 17D 29L in their last 60 games (0.98 PPG), while Ternana have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Ternana away?
Cosenza's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.40 PPG; Ternana away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ternana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ternana have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cosenza's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Ternana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cosenza at 53%, Ternana at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cosenza) and 63% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cosenza's games and 77% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cosenza's recent games and 63% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Ternana tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ternana in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 23, as Cosenza and Ternana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.46 xG and Ternana 1.06 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ternana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Ternana attack 0.95 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 27% | Ternana 27%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Ternana 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ternana's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.