Cosenza 1-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cosenza at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Ternana encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Cosenza welcome Ternana to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cosenza stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Cosenza's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Ternana have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ternana away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Cosenza carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Cosenza have won 1, Ternana 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Cosenza 0–0 Ternana — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Cosenza trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Ternana trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 48% versus Ternana 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Ternana 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cosenza surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ternana surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.86 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.208 / defence 0.920 | Ternana attack 0.981 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Ternana's defence rating of 1.397 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Cosenza's last 52 games and Ternana's last 52.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 54% | Draw 27% | Ternana 20%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.86 | Draw 3.77 | Ternana 5.10. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 50% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 80% (last 10 away games).

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