Cosenza 0-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Perugia travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 0.80 PPG versus Perugia's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Perugia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Perugia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 57% versus Perugia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 45% | Perugia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.39 xG and Perugia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.130 / defence 1.219 | Perugia attack 0.889 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.120. Data: 52 Cosenza games / 52 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 29% | Perugia 31%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Perugia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Perugia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 29% | Perugia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Cosenza 1.39 / Perugia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.130 / def 1.219 | Perugia attack 0.889 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Perugia xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Perugia kick off?
Cosenza vs Perugia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Perugia?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Cosenza vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Perugia part of?
Cosenza vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 40% chance of winning, Perugia a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cosenza and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Perugia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.13) and Perugia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.42
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.61
1.21
Perugia xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.21 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 14D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.30 PPG from 53 outings (17W 18D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.00 PPG, Perugia on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 12W 3D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 1.27 points per game from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Perugia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 14D 26L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while Perugia have gone 17W 18D 18L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Perugia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.50 PPG; Perugia away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Perugia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cosenza's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 54%, Perugia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cosenza) and 42% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 27% of games; Perugia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cosenza's recent matches and 54% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cosenza's recent games and 42% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Perugia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Perugia in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 15, as Cosenza and Perugia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.39 xG and Perugia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Perugia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Perugia attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 40% | Draw 29% | Perugia 31%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 45%, Perugia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.00 PPG, Perugia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.