Cosenza 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Brescia at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Brescia — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Brescia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–5 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Brescia in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 55% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 35% | Brescia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.74 xG and Brescia 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.798 / defence 1.260 | Brescia attack 1.059 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.249. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Cosenza games / 20 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 15% | Draw 26% | Brescia 58%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Brescia 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 40% | Brescia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 15% | Draw 26% | Brescia 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Cosenza 0.74 / Brescia 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.798 / def 1.260 | Brescia attack 1.059 / def 0.958 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Brescia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Brescia xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Brescia kick off?
Cosenza vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Brescia?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Cosenza vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Brescia part of?
Cosenza vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 15% chance of winning, Brescia a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cosenza and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Brescia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
15%
6.57
26%
3.77
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.41
1.67
Brescia xG
6.57
15%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
3%
34.86
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.67 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Brescia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Cosenza have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 4W 5D 11L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 11W 5D 4L from 20 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brescia have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.90 PPG overall record — Brescia travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.65 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.30 PPG; Brescia away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Brescia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Brescia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cosenza
4
Draws
4
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Brescia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Brescia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 40%, Brescia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Cosenza and 40% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Brescia in 50%; Cosenza have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cosenza's recent matches and 40% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cosenza's recent games and 40% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Brescia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Brescia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Brescia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.74 xG and Brescia 1.67 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brescia landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Brescia attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 15% | Draw 26% | Brescia 58%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 35%, Brescia 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.