Cosenza 2-1 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cosenza take on Alessandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Alessandria travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 13:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Alessandria have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 0.50 PPG versus Alessandria's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Alessandria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Alessandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Alessandria in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 56% versus Alessandria 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 40% | Alessandria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.14 xG and Alessandria 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.747 / defence 1.226 | Alessandria attack 0.825 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.170. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Cosenza games / 25 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 31% | Draw 35% | Alessandria 34%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Alessandria 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 40% | Alessandria 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 31% | Draw 35% | Alessandria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Cosenza 1.14 / Alessandria 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.747 / def 1.226 | Alessandria attack 0.825 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Alessandria xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Alessandria kick off?
Cosenza vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Alessandria?
Cosenza 2 - 1 Alessandria.
Where is Cosenza vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Alessandria part of?
Cosenza vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 31% chance of winning, Alessandria a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cosenza and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Alessandria in?
Cosenza (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Alessandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.75) and Alessandria's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
35%
2.85
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.32
1.18
Alessandria xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.18 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 25 games, going 4W 8D 13L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alessandria sit at 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (6W 5D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 0.80 PPG, Alessandria on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 4W 2D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Alessandria have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.04 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 8D 13L in their last 25 games (0.80 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Alessandria away?
Cosenza's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.17 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Alessandria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Alessandria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Cosenza 2-1 Alessandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 42%, Alessandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cosenza) and 50% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 42% of games; Alessandria in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cosenza's recent matches and 50% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cosenza's recent games and 50% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Alessandria tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Alessandria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Alessandria 2-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.14 xG and Alessandria 1.18 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Alessandria attack 0.82 / defence 1.50, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 31% | Draw 35% | Alessandria 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Alessandria 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Alessandria's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.80 PPG, Alessandria 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.