Monza 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pisa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Monza, 1 for Pisa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 56% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 44% | Pisa 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.39 xG and Pisa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.527 / defence 1.008 | Pisa attack 0.811 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.176. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.527 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Monza games / 23 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Pisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Pisa 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Monza 60% | Pisa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Pisa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Monza 1.39 / Pisa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.527 / def 1.008 | Pisa attack 0.811 / def 0.968 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Monza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Pisa kick off?
Monza vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Pisa?
Monza 1 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Monza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Pisa part of?
Monza vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 44% chance of winning, Pisa a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Monza and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Monza and Pisa in?
Monza (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Monza's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.81x) against Monza's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
44%
2.27
33%
3.06
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Monza xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Pisa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
17.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Monza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Monza and 0.96 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 11W 8D 4L from 23 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 3L across 23 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Monza against 1.83 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 9W 2D 0L from 11 games — 2.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 5W 4D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Pisa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 11W 8D 4L in their last 23 games (1.78 PPG), while Pisa have gone 11W 9D 3L in their last 23 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Pisa away?
Monza's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.64 PPG; Pisa away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Monza or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pisa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Monza go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2022, when Pisa 3-4 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monza) and 27% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Pisa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Monza's recent games and 27% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Pisa tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pisa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.39 xG and Pisa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.53 / defence 1.01 against Pisa attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Pisa 23%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 44%, Pisa 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.78 PPG, Pisa 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.