Monza 3-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Benevento at U-Power Stadium in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Monza's home record at U-Power Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Benevento away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Monza) versus 1.70 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Monza, 1 for Benevento and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2022, ended 1–3 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 53% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 44% | Benevento 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.33 xG and Benevento 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.232 / defence 0.962 | Benevento attack 1.065 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Data: 36 Monza games / 36 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 32% | Benevento 28%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Monza 40% | Benevento 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 32% | Benevento 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.33 / Benevento 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.232 / def 0.962 | Benevento attack 1.065 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Monza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Benevento kick off?
Monza vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Benevento?
Monza 3 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Monza vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Benevento part of?
Monza vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 40% chance of winning, Benevento a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Monza and Benevento in?
Monza (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Monza's attack at 1.23x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
40%
2.53
32%
3.12
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Monza xG
Total xG
2.44
1.10
Benevento xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
7%
13.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Monza and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Monza and 1.10 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza's recent record stands at 18W 10D 8L from 36 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 9L across 36 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.78 PPG, Benevento on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Monza have managed 12W 4D 2L from 18 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benevento's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.69 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Benevento in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Benevento in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 games (1.78 PPG), while Benevento have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Benevento away?
Monza's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.22 PPG; Benevento away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Monza or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Benevento in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Monza
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Monza 3-0 Benevento.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Benevento 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Monza and 22% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Benevento in 33%; Benevento in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 39% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Monza's recent games and 22% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Benevento tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Benevento in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Benevento 3-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.33 xG and Benevento 1.10 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against Benevento attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 40% | Draw 32% | Benevento 28%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 44%, Benevento 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.78 PPG, Benevento 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.