Modena 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sudtirol's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Modena's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Modena, 0 for Sudtirol and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sudtirol trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Sudtirol 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 46% | Sudtirol 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.906 / defence 1.169 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.201. Data: 72 Modena games / 72 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Modena dominate the H2H record, yet Sudtirol are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 70% | Sudtirol 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.18 / Sudtirol 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.906 / def 1.169 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sudtirol xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Modena vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Modena 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Modena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sudtirol part of?
Modena vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 31% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in?
Modena (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.11
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Modena xG
Total xG
2.49
1.31
Sudtirol xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Modena and 1.31 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 72 games, going 21W 25D 26L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.49 PPG from 72 outings (27W 26D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.22 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 12W 13D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.43 points per game from 35 outings (13W 11D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.10 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 21W 25D 26L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 27W 26D 19L in their last 72 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.40 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Modena or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
4
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sudtirol?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Sudtirol 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Modena) and 34% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sudtirol in 37%; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Modena's recent matches and 49% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Modena's recent games and 34% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.31 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Sudtirol attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 31% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Sudtirol 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Sudtirol 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.