Modena 0-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Palermo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 0D 2L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.20 PPG, Palermo 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Palermo trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 60% versus Palermo 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 60% | Palermo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 2.00 xG and Palermo 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.204 / defence 1.101 | Palermo attack 0.629 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.111. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Modena games / 10 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 66% | Draw 20% | Palermo 13%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Palermo 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Modena (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Palermo 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 66% | Draw 20% | Palermo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Modena 2.00 / Palermo 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.204 / def 1.101 | Palermo attack 0.629 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Modena (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Palermo xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Palermo kick off?
Modena vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Palermo?
Modena 0 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Modena vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Palermo part of?
Modena vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 66% chance of winning, Palermo a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Modena and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Palermo in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.92
13%
7.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Modena xG
Total xG
2.77
0.77
Palermo xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.43
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
14%
7.39
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
54.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Modena and 0.77 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Modena have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 4W 0D 6L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.20 PPG, Palermo on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Modena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palermo have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Palermo in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Palermo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Palermo have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Palermo away?
Modena's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 2.25 PPG; Palermo away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Modena or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Palermo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Palermo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 75%, Palermo 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Modena and 50% for Palermo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Modena's recent matches and 25% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Modena's matches and 50% of Palermo's.
Do Modena and Palermo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Modena 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 2.00 xG and Palermo 0.77 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Modena fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Palermo outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.20 / defence 1.10 against Palermo attack 0.63 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 66% | Draw 20% | Palermo 13%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Palermo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 60%, Palermo 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.20 PPG, Palermo 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.