Modena 2-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Cosenza meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Serie B appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Modena's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 65% and Cosenza 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 55% | Cosenza 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.071 / defence 1.216 | Cosenza attack 0.685 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Modena games / 58 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 57% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Cosenza 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Modena (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 67% | Cosenza 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 57% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Modena 1.73 / Cosenza 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.071 / def 1.216 | Cosenza attack 0.685 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Modena (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cosenza xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cosenza kick off?
Modena vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cosenza?
Modena 2 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Modena vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cosenza part of?
Modena vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 57% chance of winning, Cosenza a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Modena and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Modena and Cosenza in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.07x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.69x) against Modena's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.02
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Modena xG
Total xG
2.61
0.88
Cosenza xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
31.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Modena and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Modena and 0.88 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 10L across 20 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Modena against 0.90 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 3D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Cosenza in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cosenza away?
Modena's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.33 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Modena 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cosenza?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 67%, Cosenza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Modena) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Modena's games and 44% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cosenza tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Cosenza 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Cosenza attack 0.69 / defence 1.40, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 57% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 18%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 55%, Cosenza 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.