Modena 1-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Frosinone at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Frosinone — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Frosinone — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Modena have won 0, Frosinone 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Frosinone trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Frosinone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.23 xG and Frosinone 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.959 / defence 0.910 | Frosinone attack 1.400 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.093. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Modena games / 72 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 39%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Frosinone 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Modena 1.23 / Frosinone 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.959 / def 0.910 | Frosinone attack 1.400 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Frosinone xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Frosinone kick off?
Modena vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Frosinone?
Modena 1 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Modena vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Frosinone part of?
Modena vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 31% chance of winning, Frosinone a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Modena and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Frosinone?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 3 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Modena and Frosinone in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.32
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Modena xG
Total xG
2.62
1.39
Frosinone xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Modena and 1.39 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Modena have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 25D 23L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Frosinone's form line: 28W 28D 16L from 72 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.35 PPG, Frosinone on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (14W 12D 10L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 14W 13D 9L from 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 24W 25D 23L in their last 72 games (1.35 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 28W 28D 16L in their last 72 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Frosinone runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Modena's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Frosinone have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Modena 1-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 61%, Frosinone 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Modena) and 42% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Modena's games and 56% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Modena's recent games and 42% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Frosinone tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.23 xG and Frosinone 1.39 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Frosinone attack 1.40 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 31% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.35 PPG, Frosinone 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.