Mantova 2-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spezia at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spezia make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time.
Current Form
Mantova's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Spezia have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Spezia have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Spezia are 0.70 PPG clear of Mantova over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Mantova, 0 for Spezia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2024, ended Mantova 1–1 Spezia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 59% versus Spezia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Spezia 34%). Note also that Spezia surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Mantova recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 0.73 xG and Spezia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.821 / defence 1.055 | Spezia attack 0.938 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.173. Spezia bring a tight defence (rating 0.705, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Mantova's projected output down. Data: built from Mantova's last 32 games and Spezia's last 70.
Result probabilities: Mantova 21% | Draw 35% | Spezia 44%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 4.71 | Draw 2.87 | Spezia 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mantova's last 10 home games and Spezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 40% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 21% | Draw 35% | Spezia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Mantova 0.73 / Spezia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.821 / def 1.055 | Spezia attack 0.938 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Spezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Spezia xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Spezia kick off?
Mantova vs Spezia kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Spezia?
Mantova 2 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Mantova vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Spezia part of?
Mantova vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 21% chance of winning, Spezia a 44% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mantova and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Mantova vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.82) and Spezia's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.94x) against Mantova's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 32 games and Spezia's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
21%
4.71
35%
2.87
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Mantova xG
Total xG
1.89
1.16
Spezia xG
4.71
21%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.5 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Mantova and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Mantova and 1.16 for Spezia, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 8W 12D 12L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 15W 13D 4L from 32 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Spezia are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 15 home games (6W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Spezia have gone 5W 8D 2L from their last 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.47 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
Mantova (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Mantova vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Spezia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Spezia have gone 15W 13D 4L in their last 32 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Spezia away?
Mantova's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.53 PPG; Spezia away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Mantova or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Spezia in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Mantova and Spezia, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Mantova have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won Mantova 4-1 Spezia on 23 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
2
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Spezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 2, Spezia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Spezia 0-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Spezia?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Mantova) and 27% (Spezia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mantova and 13% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Spezia in 60%; Mantova have failed to score in 33% of games; Spezia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mantova's recent matches and 27% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mantova's recent games and 13% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Mantova's recent matches and 67% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Spezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 0.73 xG and Spezia 1.16 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Spezia attack 0.94 / defence 0.70, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 21% | Draw 35% | Spezia 44%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Spezia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 33
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →