Mantova 2-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sampdoria at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 25 January 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Mantova — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Sampdoria have recorded 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sampdoria's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mantova are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Mantova, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Mantova 0–1 Sampdoria — a Sampdoria win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 54% versus Sampdoria 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 41% | Sampdoria 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mantova surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.34 xG and Sampdoria 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.894 / defence 1.095 | Sampdoria attack 1.093 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.097. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mantova's projected output up. Data: built from Mantova's last 22 games and Sampdoria's last 60.
Result probabilities: Mantova 35% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.86 | Draw 3.17 | Sampdoria 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 40% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 35% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Mantova 1.34 / Sampdoria 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.894 / def 1.095 | Sampdoria attack 1.093 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Mantova (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sampdoria xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Sampdoria kick off?
Mantova vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Mantova 2 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Mantova vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sampdoria part of?
Mantova vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 35% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mantova and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mantova vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 22 games and Sampdoria's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.17
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.66
1.31
Sampdoria xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mantova and 1.31 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 6W 9D 7L from 22 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 9L across 22 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.23 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sampdoria away?
Mantova's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.80 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Mantova's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 40%, Sampdoria 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Mantova) and 60% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Mantova's games and 80% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mantova and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Mantova's recent games and 60% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Mantova's recent matches and 80% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Sampdoria finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.34 xG and Sampdoria 1.31 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Sampdoria attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 35% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 34%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 41%, Sampdoria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.23 PPG, Sampdoria 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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