Lecce 1-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lecce at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare plays host to Lecce versus Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spal (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spal have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lecce's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Spal's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lecce, 0 for Spal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Lecce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 58% versus Spal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 48% | Spal 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.93 xG and Spal 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.262 / defence 1.032 | Spal attack 0.826 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.064. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Lecce games / 33 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 59% | Draw 27% | Spal 15%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Spal 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Lecce (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 70% | Spal 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 59% | Draw 27% | Spal 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Lecce 1.93 / Spal 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.262 / def 1.032 | Spal attack 0.826 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Lecce (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Spal xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Spal kick off?
Lecce vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Spal?
Lecce 1 - 0 Spal.
Where is Lecce vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Spal part of?
Lecce vs Spal is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 59% chance of winning, Spal a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lecce and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Lecce and Spal in?
Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Spal (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lecce's attack at 1.26x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.83x) against Lecce's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.75
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.84
0.91
Spal xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
2%
47.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lecce and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lecce and 0.91 for Spal, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Spal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Lecce have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 16W 14D 3L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Spal's form line: 7W 13D 13L from 33 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Lecce are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spal.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecce have posted 2.19 PPG from 16 outings (10W 5D 1L).
On the road, Spal have gone 4W 6D 6L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.18 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Spal in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 16W 14D 3L in their last 33 games (1.88 PPG), while Spal have gone 7W 13D 13L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Spal away?
Lecce's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.19 PPG; Spal away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Lecce or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Spal in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Lecce
0
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Spal have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Lecce 1-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Spal?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 62%, Spal 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lecce) and 38% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Spal in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lecce's recent matches and 44% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lecce's recent games and 38% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Spal tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Spal in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Spal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Spal 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.93 xG and Spal 0.91 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Spal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against Spal attack 0.83 / defence 1.46, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 59% | Draw 27% | Spal 15%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 48%, Spal 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spal's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.