Juve Stabia 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.50 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 49% versus Empoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 51% | Empoli 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Empoli 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / defence 0.770 | Empoli attack 0.952 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.057. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Juve Stabia games / 15 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 30% | Empoli 19%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 5.26. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 30% | Empoli 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Juve Stabia 1.42 / Empoli 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / def 0.770 | Empoli attack 0.952 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Empoli xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Empoli kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Juve Stabia 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Empoli part of?
Juve Stabia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 51% chance of winning, Empoli a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Juve Stabia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Empoli in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.87) and Empoli's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.95x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.37
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.20
0.78
Empoli xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.78 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 19D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.96 PPG from 53 outings (11W 18D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Juve Stabia's home form reads 13W 8D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.06 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 18D 24L in their last 53 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Empoli away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.88 PPG; Empoli away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Empoli in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Empoli 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Empoli?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 44%, Empoli 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Juve Stabia) and 64% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Juve Stabia's games and 68% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Juve Stabia's matches and 64% of Empoli's.
Do Juve Stabia and Empoli tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Empoli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Empoli 0.78 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.87 / defence 0.77 against Empoli attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 30% | Empoli 19%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 51%, Empoli 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.