Juve Stabia 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cremonese at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juve Stabia face Cremonese.

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Fixture Analysis

Juve Stabia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals). Kick-off is Wednesday 21 May 2025 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Juve Stabia stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Juve Stabia at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Cremonese — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.80 PPG, Cremonese 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 1 for Cremonese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2025, ended Juve Stabia 1–1 Cremonese — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Juve Stabia trading profile (last 39 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Cremonese trading profile (last 39 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Cremonese 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Cremonese 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.904 / defence 0.899 | Cremonese attack 1.231 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.141. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.231, which lifts their away xG to 1.26. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 38 games and Cremonese's last 76.

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.29 | Draw 3.24 | Cremonese 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 40% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 60% (last 10 away games).

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