Juve Stabia 1-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 2D 3L this season (8 games, 1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cesena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Juve Stabia, 1.40 for Cesena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Cesena 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 59% | Cesena 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Cesena 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.903 / defence 1.241 | Cesena attack 0.905 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.070. Data: 17 Juve Stabia games / 17 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 37% | Draw 31% | Cesena 32%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Cesena 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Cesena 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 37% | Draw 31% | Cesena 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Juve Stabia 1.32 / Cesena 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.903 / def 1.241 | Cesena attack 0.905 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cesena xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cesena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cesena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 37% chance of winning, Cesena a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cesena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Cesena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.91x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.27
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
Cesena xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.20 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 6W 7D 4L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 6L across 17 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.47 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.59 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 65%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cesena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Cesena have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cesena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.38 PPG; Cesena away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cesena in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 3, Cesena have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Cesena 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Juve Stabia) and 50% (Cesena). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juve Stabia's games and 62% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Juve Stabia's matches and 50% of Cesena's.
Do Juve Stabia and Cesena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Cesena in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Cesena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Cesena 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Cesena 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cesena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Cesena attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 37% | Draw 31% | Cesena 32%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 59%, Cesena 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cesena's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.47 PPG, Cesena 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.