Frosinone 5-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Frosinone welcome Mantova to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Frosinone, 1 for Mantova and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 5–1 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Mantova in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Mantova 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.59 xG and Mantova 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.227 / defence 0.885 | Mantova attack 1.113 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Data: 75 Frosinone games / 75 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 4.35. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 50% | Mantova 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Frosinone 1.59 / Mantova 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.227 / def 0.885 | Mantova attack 1.113 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mantova xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Mantova kick off?
Frosinone vs Mantova kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Mantova?
Frosinone 5 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Frosinone vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Mantova part of?
Frosinone vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 48% chance of winning, Mantova a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Mantova?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Mantova in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.23x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.54
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.64
1.04
Mantova xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.04 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 31W 28D 16L from 75 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 31L across 75 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 15W 15D 7L from 37 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 6W 11D 20L across 37 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.23 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Mantova in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 31W 28D 16L in their last 75 games (1.61 PPG), while Mantova have gone 23W 21D 31L in their last 75 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Mantova away?
Frosinone's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.62 PPG; Mantova away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Mantova runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone 5-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Mantova?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 57%, Mantova 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 57% (Mantova). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mantova in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Frosinone's games and 57% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 57% of Mantova's.
Do Frosinone and Mantova tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mantova in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Mantova 5-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.59 xG and Mantova 1.04 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mantova landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Mantova attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.