Crotone 1-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 40%, yet in-form Reggina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crotone vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Reggina travel to Stadio Ezio Scida to take on Crotone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Crotone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Reggina's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Crotone's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.39 xG and Reggina 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 1.058 / defence 1.255 | Reggina attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.177. Data: 2 Crotone games / 2 Reggina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Crotone 40% | Draw 26% | Reggina 34%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Reggina 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crotone are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reggina (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crotone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 40% | Draw 26% | Reggina 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Crotone 1.39 / Reggina 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 1.058 / def 1.255 | Reggina attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Crotone (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Reggina xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Reggina kick off?
Crotone vs Reggina kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Reggina?
Crotone 1 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Crotone vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Reggina part of?
Crotone vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 40% chance of winning, Reggina a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crotone and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Reggina in?
Crotone (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L. Reggina (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crotone's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.84
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.64
1.26
Reggina xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Crotone and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Crotone and 1.26 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crotone come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Crotone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Crotone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Crotone are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Crotone's scoring rate against Reggina's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Reggina in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Reggina in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Reggina have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Crotone or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Reggina in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Reggina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Reggina 1-0 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Reggina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Crotone's games and 50% of Reggina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Crotone's matches and 50% of Reggina's.
Crotone and Reggina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone and Reggina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.39 xG and Reggina 1.26 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 1.06 / defence 1.25 against Reggina attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 40% | Draw 26% | Reggina 34%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 100%, Reggina 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crotone managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.