Crotone 4-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Pordenone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Pordenone travel to Stadio Ezio Scida to take on Crotone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone at Stadio Ezio Scida this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone away from home this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Crotone) versus 0.70 (Pordenone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Crotone trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pordenone trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 59% versus Pordenone 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 53% | Pordenone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.17 xG and Pordenone 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.851 / defence 1.395 | Pordenone attack 0.696 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.202. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Crotone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Crotone games / 17 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 35% | Draw 29% | Pordenone 35%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Pordenone 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crotone 67% | Pordenone 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 35% | Draw 29% | Pordenone 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Crotone 1.17 / Pordenone 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.851 / def 1.395 | Pordenone attack 0.696 / def 1.431 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Pordenone xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Pordenone kick off?
Crotone vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Pordenone?
Crotone 4 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Crotone vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Pordenone part of?
Crotone vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 35% chance of winning, Pordenone a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crotone and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Pordenone in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crotone's attack rating (0.85) and Pordenone's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.40
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.34
1.17
Pordenone xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crotone and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Crotone and 1.17 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crotone's recent record stands at 1W 5D 11L from 17 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pordenone, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 11L across 17 games — 0.47 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crotone on 0.47 PPG, Pordenone on 0.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pordenone's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crotone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crotone are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.82 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 1W 5D 11L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 1W 5D 11L in their last 17 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Pordenone away?
Crotone's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 0.75 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crotone and Pordenone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crotone
1
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 1, Pordenone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Pordenone 3-3 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Pordenone?
Crotone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 62%, Pordenone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crotone) and 50% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 38% of games; Pordenone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Pordenone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crotone's games and 50% of Pordenone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crotone's recent games and 50% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Pordenone tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Crotone run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone beat Pordenone 4-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.17 xG and Pordenone 1.17 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Crotone beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Pordenone attack 0.70 / defence 1.43, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 35% | Draw 29% | Pordenone 35%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 53%, Pordenone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Pordenone's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crotone 0.47 PPG, Pordenone 0.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crotone win broke the near-deadlock. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Pordenone (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.