Crotone 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brescia at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crotone vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crotone host Brescia at Stadio Ezio Scida in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Crotone — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Ezio Scida this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Brescia's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Crotone's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crotone have won 0, Brescia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crotone in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Brescia in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 59% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crotone 46% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 0.78 xG and Brescia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.905 / defence 1.203 | Brescia attack 0.966 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.165. Data: 22 Crotone games / 22 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 19% | Draw 33% | Brescia 48%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 5.26 | Draw 3.03 | Brescia 2.08. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crotone 60% | Brescia 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 19% | Draw 33% | Brescia 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Crotone 0.78 / Brescia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.905 / def 1.203 | Brescia attack 0.966 / def 0.898 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Brescia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Brescia xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Brescia kick off?
Crotone vs Brescia kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Brescia?
Crotone 0 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Crotone vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Brescia part of?
Crotone vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 19% chance of winning, Brescia a 48% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Crotone and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Crotone and Brescia in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Brescia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crotone's attack at 0.91x the league average against Brescia's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
19%
5.26
33%
3.00
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.14
1.35
Brescia xG
5.26
19%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
5%
20.39
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.0 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Crotone and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Crotone and 1.35 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crotone's recent record stands at 2W 8D 12L from 22 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 4L across 22 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 2W 5D 4L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 8W 2D 1L across 11 trips, a 2.36 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.82 PPG overall record — Brescia travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crotone are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Brescia in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 2W 8D 12L in their last 22 games (0.64 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 7D 4L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.00 PPG; Brescia away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Crotone or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Brescia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crotone and Brescia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Brescia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2022, when Crotone 0-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 64%, Brescia 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crotone) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 54%; Crotone have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Crotone's recent matches and 36% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crotone vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crotone's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Brescia tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Brescia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Crotone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Crotone 0-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 0.78 xG and Brescia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Brescia attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 19% | Draw 33% | Brescia 48%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 46%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.