Crotone 0-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Alessandria travel to Stadio Ezio Scida to take on Crotone. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crotone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Ezio Scida this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alessandria — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crotone 0.70 PPG, Alessandria 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Crotone, 1 for Alessandria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Alessandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crotone in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 59% versus Alessandria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 52% | Alessandria 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.54 xG and Alessandria 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.970 / defence 1.377 | Alessandria attack 0.832 / defence 1.555. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.129. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.555 — this is suppressing Crotone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Crotone games / 27 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 41% | Draw 30% | Alessandria 29%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Alessandria 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crotone at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crotone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crotone 60% | Alessandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 41% | Draw 30% | Alessandria 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Crotone 1.54 / Alessandria 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.970 / def 1.377 | Alessandria attack 0.832 / def 1.555 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Crotone (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Alessandria xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Alessandria kick off?
Crotone vs Alessandria kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Alessandria?
Crotone 0 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Crotone vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Alessandria part of?
Crotone vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 41% chance of winning, Alessandria a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Crotone and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 1W.
What form are Crotone and Alessandria in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Alessandria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crotone's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.34
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.84
1.29
Alessandria xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Crotone and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Crotone and 1.29 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crotone's recent record stands at 2W 9D 16L from 27 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 15L across 27 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crotone on 0.56 PPG, Alessandria on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 2W 6D 5L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alessandria's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crotone are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.04 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 2W 9D 16L in their last 27 games (0.56 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Alessandria away?
Crotone's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 0.92 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crotone and Alessandria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Alessandria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Crotone 0-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Alessandria?
Alessandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 62%, Alessandria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crotone) and 54% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 38% of games; Alessandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Alessandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crotone's games and 54% of Alessandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crotone's recent games and 54% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Alessandria tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crotone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 28, as Crotone and Alessandria drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.54 xG and Alessandria 1.29 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crotone fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Alessandria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.97 / defence 1.38 against Alessandria attack 0.83 / defence 1.55, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 41% | Draw 30% | Alessandria 29%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 52%, Alessandria 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alessandria's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crotone 0.56 PPG, Alessandria 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.