Cremonese vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Virtus Entella at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.00 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Virtus Entella 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.34 xG and Virtus Entella 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Virtus Entella attack 0.835 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Cremonese games / 38 Virtus Entella games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 27%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Virtus Entella 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Cremonese 1.34 / Virtus Entella 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Virtus Entella attack 0.835 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Virtus Entella xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella part of?
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 42% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cremonese and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Virtus Entella in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.85) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Virtus Entella xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.03 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 10D 20L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (10W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. Virtus Entella haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.89 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 3W 7D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.42 points per game from 19 outings (1W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.95 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Virtus Entella
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Virtus Entella away?
Cremonese's home record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.84 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.42 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Virtus Entella 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 32% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 37% of games; Virtus Entella in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 37% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 32% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.