Cremonese 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 5W 1D 3L from 9 Serie B matches — 1.78 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 1D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pisa — All Games: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.22 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 0.78. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.78 PPG, Pisa 2.22 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pisa trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 22% versus Pisa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 33% | Pisa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.40 xG and Pisa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.099 / defence 1.064 | Pisa attack 1.154 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.122. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Cremonese games / 9 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 35% | Draw 30% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 20% | Pisa 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 35% | Draw 30% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Cremonese 1.40 / Pisa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.099 / def 1.064 | Pisa attack 1.154 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Pisa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 35% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.78 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.10x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.31
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.78
1.38
Pisa xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.38 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 5W 1D 3L from 9 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 1L across 9 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pisa's season.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.89 scored and 0.78 conceded. Pisa's attacking output running into Cremonese's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; Pisa in 67%.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.75 PPG; Pisa away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 25%, Pisa 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Cremonese) and 75% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Cremonese's games and 100% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cremonese's recent games and 75% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Pisa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.40 xG and Pisa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Pisa attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 35% | Draw 30% | Pisa 34%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 33%, Pisa 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.