Cremonese 3-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lecce at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 1 as Cremonese welcome Lecce to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.42 xG and Lecce 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lecce attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.427 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Cremonese games / 0 Lecce games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 15% | Draw 36% | Lecce 49%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.67 | Draw 2.78 | Lecce 2.04. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 17% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 15% | Draw 36% | Lecce 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 21% | xG Cremonese 0.42 / Lecce 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lecce attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.427 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Lecce (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.42
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lecce xG
21%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Lecce kick off?
Cremonese vs Lecce kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Lecce?
Cremonese 3 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Cremonese vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Lecce part of?
Cremonese vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 15% chance of winning, Lecce a 49% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Cremonese and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Lecce in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.42. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (22.9%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 61% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
15%
6.50
36%
2.79
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
24.2%
Away win
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.42
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.40
0.98
Lecce xG
6.50
15%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.68
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
66%
1.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.7 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.42 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.98 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Lecce
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
3
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Lecce have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Lecce 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.42 xG and Lecce 0.98 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecce landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lecce attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 15% | Draw 36% | Lecce 49%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 41% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.