Como 1-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Como host Ternana at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Como at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Como at 1.20 PPG versus Ternana's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Como, 0 for Ternana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Como 66% and Ternana 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 31% | Ternana 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.40 xG and Ternana 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.844 / defence 1.207 | Ternana attack 0.988 / defence 1.590. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.083. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.590 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Como games / 29 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 36% | Draw 33% | Ternana 31%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Ternana 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Como 70% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 36% | Draw 33% | Ternana 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Como 1.40 / Ternana 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.844 / def 1.207 | Ternana attack 0.988 / def 1.590 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Como (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ternana xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Ternana kick off?
Como vs Ternana kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Ternana?
Como 1 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Como vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Ternana part of?
Como vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Como a 36% chance of winning, Ternana a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Como and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Como 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Como and Ternana in?
Como (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Ternana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Como's attack at 0.84x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.07
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Como xG
Total xG
2.69
1.29
Ternana xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Como and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Como and 1.29 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Como come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 13D 8L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.28 PPG, Ternana on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Como's home form reads 4W 6D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.41 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Ternana in coming into this match?
Como have gone 8W 13D 8L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Ternana have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Ternana away?
Como's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.29 PPG; Ternana away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Como go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2022, when Como won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Como
1
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 5, Ternana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Ternana?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Como at 57%, Ternana at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Como and 50% for Ternana.
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Como's games and 79% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Como's recent games and 50% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Ternana tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ternana in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Ternana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 30, as Como and Ternana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.40 xG and Ternana 1.29 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Ternana attack 0.99 / defence 1.59, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 36% | Draw 33% | Ternana 31%, with Como to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 31%, Ternana 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.28 PPG, Ternana 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.