Como 2-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Como welcome Benevento to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Como have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Benevento — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Como) versus 0.90 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Como, 1 for Benevento and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2022, ended 0–5 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Como trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 64% versus Benevento 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 38% | Benevento 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.92 xG and Benevento 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.878 / defence 1.155 | Benevento attack 0.887 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.124. Data: 47 Como games / 47 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41%. Fair-value odds: Como 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Como 50% | Benevento 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Como 0.92 / Benevento 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.878 / def 1.155 | Benevento attack 0.887 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Benevento (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Benevento xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Benevento kick off?
Como vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Benevento?
Como 2 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Como vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Benevento part of?
Como vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Como a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Como and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 1 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Como and Benevento in?
Como (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Como's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
29%
3.43
30%
3.34
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Como xG
Total xG
2.07
1.15
Benevento xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Como and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Como and 1.15 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Como's recent record stands at 12W 17D 18L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 15L across 47 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Como heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Como have managed 6W 9D 9L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 10W 7D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.45 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Benevento in coming into this match?
Como have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Benevento have gone 21W 11D 15L in their last 47 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.12 PPG; Benevento away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Como or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Benevento in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2022, when Benevento won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Como
2
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Benevento 0-0 Como.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Benevento 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Como and 21% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 38%; Como have failed to score in 29% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Como's recent matches and 33% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Como's recent games and 21% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Benevento tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Benevento 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Benevento 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.92 xG and Benevento 1.15 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Benevento attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 38%, Benevento 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Como winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Como (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.